Allocation of Seats in a Theatre :: Papers

The aim of my project is to make the task of the allocation of seats in a theatre in a much more efficient manner than writing down on a piece of paper, which will allow calculations to be taken to show the overall costs against profit for the whole show. This will also allow the spreadsheet to also take into account the fixed costs of show, the projected profits from program sales, confectionery sales and other miscellaneous costs and profits from the show and quickly and efficiently calculate them. Background A ------------ Mr Brown, owner of Brown Theatres puts shows on fairly frequently, so he requires a simple solution, that is quick and easy to adapt to and simple to understand. The problems faced by him is that the current solution is to write down all the information by hand and use a calculator to work out costs, expenses and profit. He wants the solution to be able to do all this in and instant, and in a simple, understandable format. Mr Brown also believes that this new system will allow his company to expand, and become more profitable, he believes that this new, efficient way of calculating will allow him to accurately calculate everything he needs in a matter of seconds. Alternative strategies for solving the problem A/B -------------------------------------------------- Non-ICT solution The non-ICT solution would be similar to one Mr Brown uses at the moment, that being pen and paper. He could create a notebook in which there is a graph where the person fills in the appropriate box relevant to where the person is sitting and whether he/she is an adult or child. After this has been done, this must all be calculated to the price paid by the person, multiplied by the number of other people of the same type and seating position, then added to all the other seating arrangements and classes of people, and then subtracted from the cost of the show. This would probably only be useful to a small

Pipeline Risk Analysis

Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas Pipeline Projects in Pakistan S. Mubin1 and G. Mubin2 1 2 Civil Engineering Department University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore, Pakistan Instructor, VTI, PVTC, Govt. of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan Abstract In order to cater for its high energy demand, Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipelines from neighboring countries. For fully utilizing the imported gas, providing it to end customers, the infrastructure of gas pipeline needs to be developed.Therefore, huge investment has been done and proposed in this sector in coming future. Considering geological, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country, there is added risk of earthquake, landslides and floods. Due to current geopolitical situation there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism in the country. Instable Government policies, high rate of inflation, rapid change in material prices ar e also important risk factors.All these factors make the situation very complex in quantifying the risk especially for a project in which the risk impact factor rises exponentially in case of risk occurrence. In this paper, most appropriate risk classification is made based on technological, organizational, political, natural climatic, security and environmental risk factors. Effort has been made to device a simpler risk management methodology to analyze and manage risks of gas pipeline project. In the proposed risk management model Monte Carlo simulation has been used to identify critical risks.Keywords: Oil and Gas pipelines; Risk Analysis and Management; Monte Carlo simulation 1. Introduction Oil and gas sector is considered as back bone of any country’s economy. In Pakistan industrialization, agriculture, transportation and even domestic utilization of the energy depends on oil and gas sector. Almost 80 % of power generation is oil and gas based (50% gas and 30% oil) [1]. For efficient energy production there is a need of efficient transportation system (main and distribution network of pipeline) in the country, which is not sufficient to fulfill the country’s requirement.As per World Bank Report only 21% of the total population of the country has access on natural gas. Due to the growing demands, pipeline network is expanding vigorously as during the last 10 years the network of main and distribution gas pipeline was expanded by 85% [2]. Currently Pakistan is meeting its gas demand by internal sources but by the year 2011 the difference between country’s gas demand and supply will be 1. 2 Bcfd which will rise to 3. 1 Bcfd by the year 2015 and ultimately to 11. 1 Bcfd by the year 2025 [3].To fill the gap between demands and supply Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipeline from neighboring countries. Options of Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar are available for gas import. Figure 1 shows that route of future cross country pipeline. In Pakistan, expected investment in pipeline construction is within range of 7 to10 billion dollars during the next 5-10 years [4]. Structure and characteristics of risk are different in different mega project such as Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline due to multi-party involvement from different geographic locations and regulatory structure [5].These mega projects may be termed as international projects defined as those where the owner and/or contractor may be from a country different to that of where the project is situated typically involve a wider range of issues than domestic projects and in effect, moving outside of one’s usual business jurisdiction interjects many unknowns. Factors impacting owner investment decisions with international capital facilities can be quite complex and may vary significantly from region to region and project to project [18].Nature and impact of risk are different in different stages of project life cycle of pipeline projects. For most e ffective risk management it is recommended to plan, analyze and manage risk in all phases of project life cycle i. e. initializing, concept clearance and feasibility, design, construction and operation. Understanding the relationship between risk Corresponding Author: S. Mubin ([email  protected] edu. pk) Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan management and project phases for capital projects can be a difficult task.For instance, some risks are negligible in construction phase but are of vital importance in design phase such as earthquake. While dealing with risk management of international projects, which are often first or one-time efforts and project progress and phasing decisions can be isolated from risk management. For most international projects, different participants are responsible for control of the various phases of a project’s life cycle. In many cases, the project owner is largely responsible for program analysis, a thirdparty is often hired to design (engineering), construct, manage and control to meet the initial onstraints set by the owner [6]. Contractor is hired to construct the project, which turns the results over to the owner for operations or production. Structuring projects with distinct phases and responsibilities can increase risk by isolating the project participants in such a manner that minimal attention is given to overarching project concerns. Individual project participants become concerned with only their own project risks and either willingly or unwillingly try to transfer these risks to other project participants.To limit the scope of this paper the discussion is confined to the risks occurring during construction and operation phase. Figure 1: The routes of future gas pipeline project in the region. The uncertainty in undertaking construction of a pipeline project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. Since each participant tries to m inimize its own risk, the conflicts among various participants can be detrimental to the project. Systematic risk management of project activities is not fully recognized as valuable by practitioners in the construction industry.No common view of risk exists since the owner, investor, designer, and constructor have differing project goals and objectives, and historically adverse relationships are common. In recent years, the concept of â€Å"risk sharing/risk assignment† contracts has gained acceptance in pipeline design and construction. The distribution of risk between the client and contractor tends to overshadow effective management strategies and investigations show that contactors and owners give minimal consideration to risks outside the realm of their own concerns.The Federation Internationale des Ingenieurs Conseils (the International Federation of Consulting Engineers, FIDIC) and the International European Construction Federation (FIEC) publish two well-known and wi dely-accepted forms of conditions of contract for international construction projects (the Red and Yellow Books) that include provisions on the fair and equitable risk sharing between the owner and the contractor as well as risk responsibilities, liabilities, indemnity, and insurance [7].Considering technological point of view geographical conditions of Pakistan are very complex for the construction of pipeline projects. Almost 50 % of the total area of Pakistan is mountainous or semi-mountainous and in rest of the 23 Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 area there is wide network of rivers and canals (Figure 2). Therefore, for linear structure like pipelines there are extensive crossings and sometimes extreme site conditions are met, where degree of risk is increased as compare to normal conditions of construction.On the other hand, risks during operation of pipelines have different characteristics depending upon the strength and weakness of operating organization, topographi cal, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country where project is executed. While dealing with natural risks, the geology and geographical characteristics of the regions must be thoroughly studied. For instance, the two continental plates i. e. Indian and Eurasian meet in Pakistan which highly impact on the eodynamics of the region which are the major source of earthquake [8]. In monsoon period there is high probability of floods. Typical topography, steep slopes, high rainfall in a specific period (JuneAugust) and high temperature (melting glaciers) are the dominating factors for intensifying the frequency of floods in a particular year. Considering geopolitics of the regions there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism.The economic instability has added the problem due to that there is frequent change in economic parameters. All these are in fact the potential risks for any construction project especially oil and gas pipelines in which risk are multiplied many fold and there is exponential rise in damage in case of occurrence of one or more risks resulting huge human and environmental losses. Figure 2: Map of Pakistan showing important geological and geographical features of the country . Classification of Risks For effective Risk Management, risk classification is of prime importance. There are many kinds of classifications have been made so far [10]. In general, risks associated with pipeline projects may be classified as broadly: †¢ †¢ Risk during Construction Risk during Operation However, in operation, risk are slightly different, in which emphasis is given to avoid those factor with hurdle safe and smooth operation/functioning of pipeline.Usually, in mega projects such as cross country trunk pipelines investment risk are considered most import followed by the security risk. More precisely, risk during construction and operation of oil and gas pipelines can be divided into following categories (Table 1): The type and causes of risk in each class are different. Risks during construction are time susceptible and the probability of occurrence of different risk are time dependent, more is the duration of project higher are the probabilities.These are generally related to execution of work processes, material availability, manpower, finances (budget), time frame, accidental, legal and environmental. 24 i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. Political risk Socio-economical risk Technical risk Organizational risk Natural catastrophic risk Financial risk (investment risk) Safety and security risk Environment risk Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table1: Risk Classifications No 1. Category Risk Political risks Unstable Govt. olicies Change in economic parameters Breach in contractual relationship Unrealistic cost baseline and financial delay Inefficient communication Accident during construction or operation Earthquake Risk Factors Change in labour policy Rise in inflati on and material prices Loss of venture or partnership Exchange rate risk and rise in interest rate Inefficient and conventional technologies Not use of HSE policies and standard floods Damage to surrounding environment Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Seasonal unavailability of labour Unrealistic SWOT analysis Strikes, lockout, lawlessness Change in economic policies and tax system Fine or compensation 2. Socio-economical risks Organizational risks 3. 4. Investment risk Disinvestment from market Insufficient resources and equipment Terrorism or war Strong credit policy Quality risk and rework Human error (Damage or loss of machine or human resource) Weather conditions e. g. humidity, precipitation Damage to ecology and wildlife 5. Technological risk 6. Security risk 7. Natural and climatic risk Landslide, hurricanes Depletion of hydrocarbon resources 8. Damage to Environmental risk natural resources 2. 1 Political Risk The effect of country’s policies on the project directly impact on project success or failure.During the policy making process, technical factors are usually ignored and policies may be set in a way that operation of a project may not be economical or trade offing. This factor is also important in unstable governments, where there is more risk of change of economic, petroleum or labor policies, which are directly related to the pipeline projects. Delays can occur due to laborious and detailed procedure for approval from public safety regulation department, environmental regulation agencies and oil and gas regulatory bodies. Public health, safety and environmental concern are more important in the western countries as compare to developing countries like Pakistan. Policy and political risks are more concerned in international project risks, such as cross border pipeline projects.In international projects these risks 25 are sometimes overlooked or assessed haphazardly. Such risks include war, civil war, terrorism, expropriation, in ability to transfer currency across borders, and trade credit defaults by foreign or domestic customers [6]. Although risks such as civil unrest and economic stability are typically outside the scope, understanding and dealing with these risks are critical for companies working internationally. A 2001 study by AON Trade Credit discovered that, in the Fortune 1000, only about 26 percent of companies had in place systematic and consistent methodologies to assess political risks [6]. 2. 2 Socio-economical riskSocio-economical conditions further reinforced the climate of uncertainty with high inflation and interest rates. The deregulation of financial institutions has also generated unanticipated problems related to the financing of construction. These risks can be forecasted and linked with the economic indicators of the country. For instance, In Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Pakistan, the economic indicators are tending to grow regardless of the political instability in t he country. The GDP of the country was 8. 4% prior to 2005 earthquake, which declined down to GDP 5. 6 or less currently. Earthquake and floods during the last two year costed government approximately $5. 4 B and expected to spend more $3. 6bn till 2010.Overall there is growth in the market and potential for foreign investment in construction sector [1]. 2. 3 Technical risk The risks related to technological problems are familiar to the design/construct professions which have some degree of control over this category. However, because of rapid advances in new technologies which present new problems to designers and constructors, technological risk has become greater in many instances. Certain design assumptions which have served the professions well in the past may become obsolete in present time. Site conditions, particularly subsurface conditions which always present some degree of uncertainty, can create an even greater degree of uncertainty during construction.Because constructi on procedures may not have been fully anticipated, the design may have to be modified after construction has begun. An example of facilities which have encountered such uncertainty is the nuclear power plant, and many owners, designers and contractors have suffered for undertaking such projects. There is a need of technological advancement to overcome this risk. statistics, geological surveys, sub surface investigation through various method has given rise to the development of such techniques which can not only quantify frequency of occurring of such phenomenon in a particular region but also their impact and destruction. Northern areas of Pakistan are considered in high seismic zone [8] particularly after incidence of 8th Oct. 005 earthquake, in which more than 86000 people died and one million got injured and 3 million became homeless, this factor is highly considered in planning, feasibility, design and construction of the any construction project in the region [9]. The major re ason is the plate tectonic motion in Himalaya, northern part of Pakistan. This plate tectonic motion is due to the uplift of Euro Asian plate by Indian plate (two plates are meeting in Pakistan) 2. 6 Investment risk Pipelines are mega project. A lot of funding is required for the completion and safe operation of pipelines. Investment has been always a prime risk in construction project due to multi party involvement.But especially for the international pipeline project, this is always risk of payback and trade offing, because of the bilateral and diplomatic relationships. 2. 7 Safety and security risk In a broader sense, safety and security risks include factors due to that loss or damage of resources (manpower, machinery and financial resources) or facilities (pipeline, pipeline crossing, gas compressor station) can occur during construction or operation phase of a pipeline. It is very often that loss of work time, machinery and manpower occur due to accident on side because of the negligence of some worker. These risks involve all actions (accident, malfunctioning, terrorism, war etc) due to that loss of resources nd production of pipeline can occur. These risks are more likely to occur during operation phase however, these can be occurring in construction stage as well. To cater these risk to occur Health safety policy is strengthen so that to minimize on-site and offsite accidents during construction. It is generally accepted that the pipeline are the target in terrorists’ attacks and wars. For, instance, history prevails that in last five years the total terrorist attacks made on the pipelines in Pakistan were 103. It may be the result of internal political situation of the country but anywhere in the world this factor of risk is considered to be very important.For safe operations, state of the art methodology and technology has been developed which ensure safe exploitation of pipeline, which include remote sensing, Geographical Information System (GIS) and mapping techniques, Light detection and ranging (LIDAR), Global positioning system (GPS), data acquisition (SCADA) and In-line inspection (ILI) etc. 26 2. 4 Organizational risk The risks related to organization and organizational relationships may appear to be unnecessary but are quite real. Strained relationships may develop between various organizations involved in the design/construct process. When problems occur, discussions often center on responsibilities rather than project needs at a time when the focus should be on solving the problems.Cooperation and communication between the parties are discouraged for fear of the effects of impending litigation. This barrier to communication results from the illconceived notion that uncertainties resulting from technological problems can be eliminated by appropriate contract terms. The net result has been an increase in the costs of constructed facilities. 2. 5 Natural catastrophic risk Natural catastrophic risks are those on w hich there is no control. They are usually the ‘act of God’ and can occur at anytime and anywhere. Earthquake, floods, hurricanes are the common examples of these risks. However, due to the development of the science and technology in the field of simulation and modeling,Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan 2. 8 Environmental risk Environmental concerns and awareness is increasing everywhere. The worldwide environmental protection movement has contributed to the uncertainty for construction because of the inability to know what will be required and how long it will take to obtain approval from the regulatory agencies. This delay in approval practically influence on total costs of the project. Public safety regulations have similar effects. The situation constantly change guidelines for engineers, constructors and owners, as projects move through the stages of planning to construction due to the change in govt. policies.These moving targets add a significant new dimension of uncertainty which can make it virtually impossible to schedule and complete work at budgeted cost . Risk management reduces the impact of negative risks and enhances positive risk to make opportunities. However, limiting our scope in this section to negative risks, risk management may be defined as a method to reduce the consequences of negative events (risk) tend to occur during construction and operation of pipeline by developing mechanisms and strategies (risk transfer, risk reduction, risk distribution, avoidance, risk enhancement) compatible to the system environment in which project is executed. The strategy of risk management is based on risk analysis results for a particular project.According to Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk management [11] the process includes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Risk management planning Risk identification Qualitative risk analysis Quantitative risk analysis Risk reduction strategies 3. Ri sk Management Process Generally risk analysis and management had not been applied in construction industry and especially in pipeline projects. It is comparatively new area for pipeline projects, which is rapidly advancing due to the involvement of non native client or contractor. However, the concept of risk analysis and management is getting fame in pipeline project due to involvement of multinational contractor/organizations.Basically risk management deals with management of positive and negative events which occurs during realization of projects. 3. 1 Risk management planning Risk management process (PMI approach) starts with the planning of risk management, which includes a detailed risk management planning. In Risk management planning the proposed course of action for risk analysis is set. The input, output and process are shown in the table 2. Table 2: Process showing Risk Management Planning [19] Input Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Proj ect scope management Project management plan Planning meeting and analysis Risk Management Plan Planning course of action Process Out put 3. 2 Risk Identification processFor effective risk analysis and management the identification of risk is very important carefully such that no important factor is left which can negatively impact on the project. The risk indemnification process input and output are shown in table 3, which include the following: Information Gathering Techniques: Examples of information gathering techniques used in identifying risk can include brainstorming, Delphi techniques, interviewing, root cause identification and SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) 27 analysis. Brainstorming is important data gathering technique for risk identification in which a group of team members or subject-matter experts (design, construction, purchase, finance etc) together identify expected risks.Delphi is another technique of information gathering used as a way t o reach a consensus of experts on a subject. Experts on the subject participate in this technique anonymously. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas Project Documentation Reviews: For risk identification project documentation are reviewed, including plans, assumptions, prior project files, and other information. The quality of the plans, as well as Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 consistency between those plans and with the project requirements and assumptions, can be indicators of risk in the project. Assumptions Analysis: Every pipeline project is conceived and developed based on a set of hypotheses, scenarios, or assumptions.Assumptions analysis is a tool that explores the validity of assumptions as they apply to the project. It identifies risks to the project from inaccuracy, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions. Table 3: Process of Risk Identification Input Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Project scope man agement Project management plan Risk Management plan Checklist Analysis: Risk identification checklists can be developed based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from previous similar projects and from other sources of information. The lowest level of the RBS can also be used as a risk checklist.Diagramming techniques: Some Risk diagramming techniques may also be used for risk identification which includes cause-and-effect diagrams, system or process flow charts and influence diagrams. Process Information collection Documentation review Assumption analysis Checklist analysis Diagramming techniques Out put Risk Register 3. 3 Qualitative risk analysis There are several theories to quantify risks [12, 17]. Numerous different risk formulae exist, but perhaps the most widely accepted formula for risk quantification is: Rate of Occurrence i. e. , probability multiplied by the Impact of event equal to Risk Number, mathematically expressed in equation 7. The i nputs and output of qualitative risk analysis process is shown in table-4.PMI defined values of probability and impact factor can be used in risk analysis given in Table 5. However, the selection of one of the value of P for a particle risk from table 5, is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial results. The objective is to prioritize risk based on their probability and impact assessment. Probability and Impact matrix is used to visualize the impact of risk from least to maximum possibility. Another method called Risk Data Quality Assessment is used which requires accurate and unbiased data Analysis of the quality of risk data is a technique to evaluate the degree to which the data about risks is useful for risk management.It involves examining the degree to which the risk is understood. Risks to the project can be categorized by sources of risk (e. g. , using the RBS), the area of the project affected (e. g. , using the Work Breakdown Structure), or other useful c ategory (e. g. , project phase) to determine areas of the project most exposed to the effects of uncertainty. Table – 4 Process showing Qualitative risk analysis [19] Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Risk probability and impact assessment Probability and Impact matrix Risk data quality assessment Risk categorization Risk Register (updates) Out put 28Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table 5: Standard values of frequency of occurrence and Impact factors [11] Possibility of occurrence very high chance High chance Greater chance Possible Likely Unlikely Probability (P) 90 % 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% Type and level of risk Impact When maximum impact on scope, time and cost High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost High impact on time, medium impact on scope and lesser impact on cost When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope Impact Factor (I) 0. 9 0. 6 0. 3 0. 1 3. 4 Quantitative risk analysisFor quantitative risk analysis any of the following method may be used as illustrated in Table 6. incorporates probabilities and the costs or rewards of each logical path of events and future decisions, and uses expected monetary value analysis to help the organization identify the relative values of alternate actions. See also expected monetary value analysis. Sensitivity analysis: Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. It examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being examined when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline value.One typical display of sensitivity analysis is tornado diagram, which is useful for comparing relative importance of variables that have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable. Expected Mon etary Value (EMV) Analysis: It is a statistical technique that calculates the expected outcome of future scenarios in monetary form that may or may not happen. Modeling and simulation: Modeling and simulation is recommended for cost and schedule risk analysis because it is more powerful and less subject to misapplication than expected monetary value analysis. Simulation uses a model that translates the uncertainties specified at a detailed level of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. 3. 5 Risk eduction strategies Risk register may be obtained from risk management procedure defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) [11], which is a document containing the results of the qualitative risk analysis and quantitative risk analysis. On the basis of risk analysis risk reducing strategy is set which is also given in risk register. The risk register in that way, presents all related information of identified risks including description, category, cause, probabil ity of occurring, impact(s), risk number and the possible strategy set for each risk. Decision Tree: The decision tree is a diagram that describes a decision under consideration and the implications of choosing one or another of the available alternatives. It is used when some future scenarios or outcomes of actions are uncertain.It Table 6: Process showing Quantitative risk analysis [19] Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Out put Quantitative risk analysis ( Sensitivity analysis, Decision Tree, Modeling and Simulation, Expected Monetary Value, EMV) 29 Risk Register (updates) Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 The common course of action of the any organization or participant (consultant, contractor, client or owner) participating in the construction process of oil and gas pipeline can adopt one or combination of course of action given below, depending upon the type of project, lo cation and circumstances.Distribution of risk between participants of the project can be made by: 1. Risk Transfer (insurance, contracts) 2. Contingency Budget 3. Risk mitigation (problem solving and root cause analysis) 4. Risk avoidance 4. Development of Risk Management Model for Pipeline Construction Projects Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk analysis and management may be complicated and laborious for construction project like pipeline. Therefore a model of risk analysis and management is developed which simplifies the process and produce more probable results with the implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (Figure 3). Project document review Market Analysis Client/Contractor reviewGeopolitical analysis and review 2. Risk Classification Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) 3. Risk probability and impact factor Data collection (Authentic source) Data processing (Normal, Beta, Gamma, Log, etc distribution) Calculation of Frequency (P) and Impact factor (I) 4. Risk an alysis 5. Monte Carlo Simulation Identification of critical risk 6. Risk management strategy Risk Transfer (Contract, insurance) Risk Distribution (Between parties) Risk Mitigation (Eliminating risk causes) Risk Avoidance 7. Risk monitoring process Documentation Monitoring process and results Check and make changes Data Bank Figure3: Risk Management Model for pipelines construction project. 30Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan STEP-1: Model starts with identification and classification of risks considering the type of construction project. Degree and frequency of risk varies from trunk pipeline to distribution line. Similarly it gives suitable approach for both the major parties i. e. Owner (client) and the Contractor. Before identifying the risk the market review, client/contractor capability and geopolitical conditions of the region are analyzed where project is expected to be executed. The types of risk are also depending upon the ty pe of contractual relationship between the owner and constructing firm. In different ypes of contract (Build-Operate and Transfer, Engineering-Purchase and Construction, Figure, Turnkey contracts, Labour contract, etc) between the owner and constructing body the level and intensity of risk differs [13]. STEP-2: On the basis of risk identification risk are categorized and Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) is made as shown in Figure 4. Risk identification is the most important thing followed by the probability and impact calculations in whole risk analysis process. Figure 4: Risk Breakdown Structure of gas pipeline project STEP-3: Risk probability assessment investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur. Risk impact assessment investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as time, cost, scope, or quality.The selection of PMI defined the values of probability and impact factor given in Table 5 is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial res ults. For instance, it may be difficult some time to distinguish the possibility from â€Å"Higher Chance† to â€Å"Greater Chance† for that an expert can use 60% probability value however, another use 45%. In that way some negligible risk may be superseded to other important risk. Risk impact factor defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) are used in this study which range from 0,1 to 0. 9 depending upon the type and impact of event to the project. For risk Monte Carlo Simulation the precise value of probabilities are required.Therefore, probability and impact of each risk may be calculated based on historic data. In this 31 case we the values of probability of different risks are calculated by using different probability distribution curves, however, when the historical data is not available, the probability is judged by experts opinion (from SNGPL) or the direct value of probability for that particular risk published by the related government agency. It is ver y important to define the probability distribution of a risk on the basis of that the frequency of occurrence is calculated. It is observed that the probability distribution of different risk appearing in different stages of project life cycle is different.Therefore, during calculation of probability of each risk the characteristic of risk must be considered to find the appropriate distribution to get the more precise results. For example, figure 5 shows the 10 year data of flood [21] depicts that the a normal curve is best suited to find the probability of a given volume/time called as the flood flow may be calculated using Equation 1,2 and 3 [14]. Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Figure 5: Graphical representation of flood data 1990-2001 where P – probability of occurrence Z – area under normal curves for a given value X (the probability of that area can be found out from charts) ? – mean value of the 10 year data of river flows. ? – standard deviation of the mean data.On the basis of historical data, obtained from IRSA, the probability of river flow more than 400 (MAF) (which is termed as flood flow) through river system of Pakistan (sum of river flow at a time on Mangla and Terbela) is calculated by using measured. Similarly other risks are also quantified based on the characteristic of data distribution curve. For instance, for earthquakes we are interested to find the probability of occurrence earthquake more than 5. 5 Richer Scale. According to construction codes, the earthquake between 3. 5-5. 4 Richer Scale is often felt, but rarely causes damage. A value of 5. 5 Richer Scale is selected to calculate probability of 32 occurrence under assumption that almost slight damage to well designed buildings can caused major damage to poorly constructed buildings over small regions.Pipelines can go under slight damage of residual. For a random variable X (x > 0 and elsewhere i. e. x < 0 the value of probability is zero) have an exponential distribution with parameter ? then probability distribution is defined as in equation (4), (5) and (6) [14]. Therefore either exponential or gamma distribution (with m =1) may be used for probability calculation of earthquake at a given value (in Richer Scale) using the historical data [9], as shown in the Figure 6. where P – probability of occurrence ? – mean value of historic data ? – standard deviation of the historic data e – 2. 718282 VAR is the variance at any value X. For 5. Richer Scale earthquake ? = 1 ? P (X > 5. 5) = ? 1. e – 1*5. 5 = 0. 000408 5. 5 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Frequency of occurrence 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Earthquake Intensity (Richer scale) Figure 6: Graphical representation 45 year earthquake data STEP-4: On the basis of probability values for each risk a risk register (table 7) may be made which presents quantitative risk analysis for each risk. PMI defined impact factor can be used which clear cut defines the type and condition of risk impact. On the basis of this formula below qualitative risk analysis is made.The following relationship is used for risk analysis [11]: RN = P x I RN – Risk Number P – Probability of occurrence I – Impact factor of risk For parameters the data is not available expert judgment can be used for probability assessment. Risk Number (RN) can be found for all risk identified in Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS). Manually it can be identified critical risk having larger risk number, RN based on the one point calculation. However, the more authentic way to identify the critical risks associated to pipeline project is Monte Carlo Simulation approach which is discussed in next step. STEP 5: Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used computational method for generating probability distributions of variables that depend on other variables or param eters represented as probability distributions.Although Monte Carlo simulation has been used since the 1940s, development of computer technology has made it accessible and attractive for many new applications [15]. That availability has coincided with increasing dissatisfaction with the deterministic or point estimate calculations typically used in quantitative risk assessment; as a result, Monte Carlo simulation is rapidly gaining popularity. Monte Carlo simulation, which is a mathematical method used in risk analysis to approximate the distribution of potential results based on probabilistic 33 (7) inputs would involve many calculations of the intake rate rather than a single calculation; for each calculation, the computation would use a value for each input parameter randomly selected from the probability density function for that variable [16].Each simulation is generated by randomly pulling a sample value for each input variable from its defined probability distribution, e. g. uniform, normal, lognormal, triangular, beta, etc. These input sample values are then used to calculate the results, i. e. total project duration, total project cost, project finish time. The inputs can be task duration, cost, start and finish time, etc. This procedure is then repeated until the probability distributions are sufficiently well represented to achieve the desired level of accuracy. They are used to calculate the critical path, slack values, etc. Monte Carlo simulations have been proven an effective methodology for the analysis of project schedule with uncertainties.In Monte Carlo simulation any desired level of mathematical accuracy can be achieved by increasing the number of iterations. Risks are probable entities, it is possible that all the risk accrued at the same time during project execution and may be no identified risk appears. Therefore, it is desired to use Monte Carlo simulation technique to find the most critical and probable risk which can appear in the pi peline project. Risk analysis has been made by using program Riskyproject 1. 3. 3 [20] which is an advanced project management software with integrated risk analysis. RiskyProject is used for planning, scheduling, quantitative risk analysis, and performance measurement of projects with multiple risks and uncertainties.RiskyProject determines which parameters will have the most effect on the project: duration, cost, and finish time with and without risks, crucial tasks, critical risks, and success rate. RiskyProject helps to optimize the course of the project: track project performance and risk together and analyze the affect of mitigation efforts [22]. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulation critical risks are Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Table 7: Risk input in risk register and their quantitative analysis for pre-defined risks Risk Identification and Categorization Cat. Risk 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 1. 2. Risk Register Risk An alysis Freq. Risk reducing StrategyRanking 27 3 23 25 8 14 29 1 12 21 16 8 9 12 4 5 3 2 24 18 19 11 10 5 20 11 12 5 15 3 12 2 6 8 Risk Avoidance Risk Risk Transfer Mitigation Remarks Risk Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Unstable Government policies Change in regulations Change in labor policy Change in petroleum policy Political instability Lawlessness, strikes, lockouts Change in economic parameters Hike in material prices Unavailability of skilled laborers Change in project scope Insufficient technology Completion of construction not on time Not realistic planning of resources and volume of work Request for increase in project budget In sufficient specialist and engineers Strains in contractual relationships Financial delays Disinvestment from the market Loss ofPartnership Change in credit policy (increase interest rate) Design not completed in time Unexpected obstacle on site (dewatering, rock excavation) Slow communication between team members War Terrorism Accident on site during construction Loss of human life Earthquake Flood Landslides Unexpended weather condition, precipitation wind storms Damage to environment Degradation of natural resources (P) 5,15% 8% 2,10% 2,90% 5% 4% 4,50% 8,10% 8,03% 6,80% 3,9 % 10% 9,50% 8,10% 13,13 % 6,50% 5,30% 6. 1 % 4,40% 3,01% 5,10% 7,80% 7,80% 5,90% 0,10% 2,20% 2% 3,90% 0,04% 3,07% 2,1 % 4,72% 3,75% 1,10% Impact (I) 0,32 0,6 4 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,3 0,9 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,1 1Risk Number 1,55% 4,80% 1,89% 1,74% 3,00% 2,40% 1,35% 7,29% 2,41% 2,04% 2,34% 3,00% 2,88% 2,43% 3,94% 3,90% 4,77% 5,49% 0,44% 1,81% 1,53% 2,34% 2,34% 3,54% 0,09% 1,98% 1,80% 2,34% 0,12% 2,76% 0,63% 2,82% 2,25% 0,66% E?5 E? E? GO E? E? E? 6 3 GO, EO SA 7 GO E? EO EO EO SA GO SA EO EO SA EO SA EO EO EO SA SA SA SA SA SA SA GO GO 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,3 0,6 0,6 0,6 0. 1- When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope. 0. 3- High impact on time, medium impac t on scope and lesser impact on cost. 3. 0. 6- High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost. 4. 0. 9- When maximum impact on scope, time and cost. 5.EO- Frequency of risk is based on expert’s opinion. 6. GO- Frequency of risk is based on statistic available by relevant Government organization. 7. SA- Frequency of risk is based on statistical analysis. 34 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Figure-7(a): Monte Carlo Simulation conducted for risk analysis of Muree Rawat gas pipeline project presents most probable cost and duration to complete project. It also presents most probable date of completion of the project considering all identified risks. Figure-7(b): Result obtained from simulation identifying most critical risk impacting scope, duration and cost Muree Rawat gas pipeline project dentified impacting on scope, cost and duration of project [Figure 7 (a) and (b)]. Strategy for risk management is set ac cordingly. The following analysis and results was produced by the programme: 35 Sensitivity analysis Success rate of completion Critical risks affecting cost Critical risks affecting duration of project Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Critical activities. Most probable duration Most probable cost of the project Most probable date of completion of project. STEP 6: On the basis of critical risk identification by Monte Carlo simulation, risk reduction strategy is set, which may be risk transfer, mitigation, avoidance, distribution and etc.During construction process the impact of risk can be lowered by changing the schedule of construction for example 95% of probability of flood occurrence is in period from June to August. In flood, the area comes under water and may not be possible to continue the construction process. Therefore, schedule may be set in a way that ground related activities should be set accordingly to avoid the occurrence. STEP 7: The results or set methodol ogy for risk management must be periodically monitored and checked for improvement. Lesson learned and recommendation should be send to â€Å"Data Bank† which may be useful for risk analysis and management of another pipeline project of similar nature. organizational capacity for design, construction and operation. Organizational or technological risk like insufficient resource planning or project management, change in scope etc can be eliminated by improving the process or application of new technologies available in this field. New state of the art technologies are helpful in managing change at any stage of the project. Historical data of river flows shows that the flood has probability of 95% of occurrence between June and August. This risk can be minimized during construction phase by rearranging the construction schedule. Other risks like landslides are associated with floods, rain fall or earthquakes. Earthquake risk during construction phase depends on the length of ex ecution of project and only impact on the construction cost of the project. As the duration of the execution increases probability of occurrence of risk also increase.However, in operation phase this risk must be eliminated by practicing design based on earthquake/horizontal forces. †¢ †¢ 5. Conclusion and Recommendations †¢ Probability of risk occurrence â€Å"P† comes out to be the function of project duration â€Å"T† both during construction and operation phase. However Intensity of destruction or Impact is a function of enterprise internal and external environment. Three most critical tasks calculated by Risky Project are Excavation, Transportation of Material and Stringing of pipelines. The most critical risks come out to be change in economic parameters, Change in design and scope, earthquake and terrorism during construction and operation of gas pipelines.Considering all risks the probable values to project completion calculated by Risky project is 460 days however the base project duration is 390 days. Similarly the project cost without risks is 350,00,000 however, with risks it is 391,00,000. On the basis of that contingency budget of project can be formulated to cater the risk. The secondary risks like change in material prices, construction not finished in time or budget and design not in time can be reduced or transferred to the other party or organization by contract. However SNGPL is designing, constructing and operating gas pipelines so risk can be eliminated by strengthening the internal Acknowledgement Mr. Pervair, Senior General Manager and Engr.Waqar Ashraf, Deputy General Manager (Projects), SNGPL are acknowledged for their contribution and support in providing data and relevant material. †¢ REFERENCE [1] Economic Survey of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, Chapter 15, Energy Sector of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan. (2006), 219-225. [2] Annual Report; Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), Lahore, Pakist an (2006), 511. [3] Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Pipeline Pre-feasibility report by Hagler Bailly Pakistan. Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 111-119. [4] Syed Hassan Nawab; Proc. 3rd Pakistan oil & gas conference, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2007), 136-145 [5] Amberish K. D. ; A pipeline through Pakistan, Dehli, India (2004), 131-137. [6] John W. , Edward G. ; International Project Risk Assessment: Methods, Procedures, and Critical †¢ †¢ 36Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Factors (Center Construction Industry Studies, Report No. 31, The University of Texas at Austin) Austin, Texas. (2003), 41-49. [7] FIDIC  © Conditions of contract for construction. (Multilateral Development Bank Harmonized Edition). Geneva, Switzerland. (2005), 217-229. [8] Armbruster J. ; Research Journal, 83(1978) 8891. [9] Mahdi S. , Muhammad S. ; Proc. 1st International Conference on Earthquake Engineering (ICCE), Lahore, Pakistan, (2006), 177-182. [10] D'Appoloni a E. ; Proc. of 9th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering,Tokyo, Japan, 4(1979), 410-414. 11] PMBOK ® Guide; A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, 3rd Edition, PA, USA, (2004), 237-264. [12] Peter C. , Robert P. ; Proc. 2nd International Deepwater Pipeline Technology Conference. London, UK, (1999), 291-297. [13] Conditions of Contract for EPC/Turnkey Projects, Guidance for the preparation of the particular Conditions Forms of Tender, Contract Agreement and Dispute Adjudication Agreement, USA, (1999), 4-12. [14] Sher Muhammad Ch. ; Introduction to statistical theory, Ilmi Kitab Khana, Urdu Bazar, Lahore, Pakistan, 6th Ed, (1996), 361-370. [15] Susan R. P. ; Proc. Int. Conference on Risk Assessment and Policy Association meeting in Alexandria, Virginia, (1997), 245-255. [16] Brenda McCabe; Proc. Int.Conference on Simulation, Toronto, Canada, (2003), 15611565. [17] Jack R. , Meredith, Samuel J. , Mantel Jr. ; Project Management, 5th Ed, NJ, USA, (2002), 191105. [18] Wells Louis, Gleason Eric; Harvard Business Review Journal, 73(5)(1995) 44-54. [19] CPM 128: Project Management Boot Camp, (2006), 11. 1-11. 30. [20] www. intaver. com/accessed on 10th March, 2007 [21] Annual Flood Report; Ministry of Water and Power, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 1-5 also available online on http://www. pakistan. gov. pk/ministries/index. jsp ? MinID=24=291. [22] User’s Guide to RiskyProject Professional 1. 3, Intavar Institute Inc. , USA, (2006), 31-38. 37

Organization Evaluation

The organization that I will describe today is where I work, at Applause's. Here we have a vertical structure that consists of the owner, general manager, four managers, and all employees directly below them. The owner has complete control and say over everything that goes on in the restaurant. The general manager receives information on how to run and operate from the owner and relay that information down to the four members of management directly below him. Their Jobs are to collect information from the general manager and use that to complete their tasks and engage the employees under them.Each member of management has their own crew that they run, create schedules for, and help when problems arise. There is the kitchen manager who runs the kitchen crew and oversees the kitchen employees schedules, the food prep, and cleaning. There is also the bar manager who creates bartender schedules and training, as well as liquor costs and control. The staff manager creates schedules for the hosts and servers, controls the flow of the seating and dining experience, and ensures that the customers are happy.Finally the fourth anger is the assistant manager who can help out all managers with their duties and has basically the same responsibilities as the others but without a direct pool of employees. If business gets poor he will be able to assist every area of the restaurant. This form of organization varies from a horizontal structure because, although there are several managers on one level and all employees on one level, all employees report to a separate manager who resolves any issues, problems, or conflicts.There is no confusion as to who to report to and information is kept organized and accurate because there is only one person to report to. A horizontal structure in my company would have several managers for each section of the restaurant. There would be two or more kitchen managers, staff managers, bar managers and assistant managers. Although the assistant man ager helps out with everything in the restaurant, there is still only one manager for each area of the restaurant.Another form of organization would be a functional form of organization where the organizations â€Å"are specialized and grouped according to business unction's and the skills they require: production, marketing, human resources, research and development, finance, accounting, and so forth† (Bateman & Snell, 2011). The company I work for is similar to this form because all areas of the restaurant are separated into several areas where one person runs, maintains and regulates what goes on in that area.The only real downside of this type of organization is if it were in a very large company. Information and workloads may become too great for one person to handle. In this case, information can get lost and radioactivity can slow because of management becoming over worked. As the book states, â€Å"this type of structure may be most appropriate in smaller business se ttings and if the business becomes fragmented it may have difficulty bringing new products to customers and responding quickly to customer needs† (Bateman & Snell, 2011).I do not feel like the marketing department has anything to do with how the company's organizational structure because it is a chain restaurant. Therefore marketing is done at another location and does not interfere with how this branch is run. The name goes for the finance area, although they are pretty tight on the financial aspect so I feel like a vertical structure was chosen to save money. If they had a horizontal structure they would need to spend additional money on extra employees and or managers.Human resources' is also an area I feel is not affecting how the structure of our branch is run. However operations do affect how the structure is set up. Our shifts and workload is directly affected by the business that comes in. If there is a lot of business we will all have plenty of shifts and be able to w ork enough to make accessory money. If business gets poor enough all employees will be cut and management will take over and do our Jobs. I always hear the managers' talk about labor costs to sales and when sales are low people are asked to leave to save money.I think that by having a vertical structure the restaurant saves the most money because people and managers not only have one division of employees but are crossed trained in order to save money when needed. When looking at geographic, organizational, customer based, product, marketing channels, and personalization organizational design, these help determine which structure best suits the company I work for because we base the work we do (how much and for how long) entirely on sales and revenue that the company brings in.When you get into the human recourse and marketing area of the company the Jobs are stable and not reliant on sales. The organizational structure that we have is based off of customers. The larger part of the company would have maybe a horizontal structure when we get into marketing and there might be several managers controlling this rear because the demand for new food, advertisements, and ways to save money are a never-ending need which means that many brains are needed and that they will pay more people to work these Jobs which means the need creates the organizational structure of a horizontal structure.Because the actual restaurant is also customer based it means that based on sales, the structure is determined by the customer. If sales are high we can have more people on shift. If sales are low they have to ask people to leave and cut shifts so a vertical organization is ideal because each anger knows how to perform the employee tasks and can take over if necessary.Also by having a vertical organization the company is saving money on the restaurant level because they do not have to hire multiple people to do one Job. In the end the company I work for, on the restaurant level has a dopted a vertical form of organization which I feel is the best option because it saves money by adapting to a customer needs based environment. One manager monitors and controls many employees.

Gathering Research Data-Police Officers and Job Hazards Essay

What is the goal or purpose behind your proposed research? The purpose of this study is to identify the degree to which quality of performance by police officers is affected by actual hazards in the execution of their jobs. What type of interview structure would you use? Why? The interview will be structured to answer the two main questions; what hazards police officers are faced with? How does it determine the way an order is executed? Obviously, the interviewing questionnaire would consist of three parts. The first section will ask basic biographical questions pertaining to gender, length of time in the service among other items relevant to the study. Sections two and three would embody responses pertaining to the research hypothesis. It would be so designed to offer scope for comparative an analysis between the variables quality of performance on the jobs and hazards affecting execution of duties. It is important for it to be structured in this way to excluded biases in the study. As such the research would create a balance. This is expected to expose transparency and validity. What would be some questions you would ask? Why? Biographical data— Age, sex, marital status, length of service, educational back ground and rank. Questions pertaining to work performance— The likert scale could be used here to solicit responses. From a scale 1-5 five being the highest, rate the extent to which you love your job; what tasks you like performing best? (A list of duties will be offered to be circled); what are do you feel you perform best? A list of tasks will be offered as a selection) Questions pertaining to hazards—A likert scale could be adopted for the first responses. Rate using the scale 1-5 five being the highest; how likely are you to proceed with the order of arresting a harmed criminal? How would you react if instructed to conduct a investigation in a know drug infested community (a list of options will be designed for selection). What is your perception of hazards in the execution of you duties? This would be an opened ended question without a structured response. These are the questions which would most likely offer the basis for a comparative analysis of the research. What are some distinct advantages of a qualitative data-gathering strategy, such as participant observation, over more quantitative approaches? It is a mater of subjectivity as against objectivity. Respondents during a quantitative research believe that they are expected to behave in a particular way so they act it. This violates internal validity. In a qualitative analysis the sampled populations do not know that they are being researched. Therefore there is no compromised behavior. Hence the criteria of validity can be precisely evaluated. The only subjectivity to the research are those influenced by the researchers’ paradigms. When conducting survey research, how important is informed consent and confidentiality? From the perspective of both the police as a public offer and the police as a researcher the question of informed consent and confidentiality borders on professional ethics; be it a professional researcher or police officer. It is therefore pertinent that legal rights to privacy be maintained at every level of institutionalized practice. The real importance lies in the fact that the legislated right to privacy must be adhered to. It spreads across vey discipline. Information derived from studies such as these are used to redesign public policy. As such the participants must give written or verbal consent for the information to be used for what it was intended. It must also be confirmed that information would not be shared to jeopardize their future.

Death Penalty Abolishment Essay

In today’s world, money is a source for mostly everything. It is what keeps food on the table and what keeps most people going to work. With how hard people work to earn and maintain an income, it would be nice to know where the money taken in taxes goes. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (2014), the United States spent 50 billion dollars on the Department of Corrections. 35% of that total was used for capital punishment cases, which totals out to 17.5 billion dollars used in one year towards capital punishment in the United States. A large portion of those funds being used are coming from state and federal taxes collected from hard working U.S. citizens. That 17.5 billion dollars could be used for much better things then court cases. State legislatures still allowing the death penalty need to abolish the practice period to lower state taxes, fix prison structures, and help redirect funds to better locations. The complete abolishment of capital punishment would be a large driving force to lower state taxes. According to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the average state tax for middle class families or individuals is 9%. (2014). Using California as an example, out of that 9%, 3% goes to the states Department of Corrections. Out of that 3%, 2% of that is fed into public defenders, court room hearings and cases, extra security for death row inmates, as well as their food, living quarters, and special transportation. That is a lot of costly measures for a single person when you look at numbers. In regards to where the rest of those taxes goes, .5% goes to public safety, .25% goes towards state education services, and 1% goes towards public transportation (California Board of Equalization, 2014). If the state continues to use executions as a method of punishment, the percentage going towards corrections will only rise. If it continues to rise, either taxes will go up or the state will have to pull from education, emergency responders, and public transportation. If you look at the state of Michigan, who did abolish capital punishment, income tax is a little different. According to Michigan’s Department of Treasury (2014), the income tax is 7% for middle class families and individuals. Of that already lower 7%, only 1.55% goes towards the state’s Department of Corrections, with .75% going towards education and .75% going towards public safety. Taxes will always be there  and likely b e somewhat high but the states without capital punishment generally have a lower rate with better allocation of the funds. Capital punishment is creating an atmosphere of higher costs all around, which have to come from somewhere. Current prison structures are taking a large hit due to capital punishment that usually goes unseen. Unfortunately it takes a major issue such as a prison guard’s death to point out the prison structure issues. The average guard to inmate ratio varies from state to state. In the best conditions the guard to inmate ratio will be 1:5, in worse case situations, some states are currently 1:20. Whereas some states require a minimum of 1:1 guard to inmate ratio for death row inmates (Mitchell, 2012). Those guards are being paid next to nothing compared to the costs taking place around them. Taking a look at what it costs to maintain a prison can be staggering. It costs an average of about $47,000 per year to incarcerate an inmate in prison in California (Edwards, 2009). That number skyrockets for a death row inmate. California taxpayers pay $90,000 more per death row prisoner each year than on prisoners in regular confinement (Mitchell, 2012). With just over 3,000 people on death row, that places a yearly $270,000,000 extra that has to be placed on death row inmates. That extra money is needed for the court hearings, extra security, singled out specific cells, and an entire area of a prison just for them. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the average time someone spends on death row is 14 years (2011). If you take the 14 year average, each death row inmate is costing their state roughly $1,260,000 prior to execution. If the total amount of death row inmates is taken into account, it is costing the nation’s tax payers roughly 3.78 billion dollars over the course of 14 years to follow through with the â€Å"quick fix† to murderers. Those funds could help restructure the prisons, creating a safer environment for the guards to be in. According to Ron McAndrew (2014), a former state prison warden, â€Å"Guards are never in a fair game situation, they are trained to be outnumbered, which is a horrible thing to think about, we are hiring them and placing them in that kind of situation because we do not have a choice.† Removing capital punishment allows for the removal of death row. If death row is removed, it would allow all those extra security measures and guards to be used for general population and overall prison security. With all the money being spent on capital punishment related issues, the complete abolishment  of it would allow states to place that money where it would greatly help. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the United States ranks 33 in reading, 27 in math, and 22 in science amongst the rest of the countries in the world (2011). Imagine what some of that money being used for capital punishment could do for the United States as a whole when put into education. A portion of the extra money could potentially be put towards emergency responder services. Those funds could cause faster response times, better equipment, and better and more frequently trained personnel. As a whole that could potentially save lives. Another area that would better tremendously due to the relocation of funds is medical facilities. Most medical facilities in the United States are always understaffed, underpaid, and have issues maintaining. Lives could potentially be lost due to slow response times or understaffed hospitals (Sarat, 2009). The funds could go towards providing better public transportation or for some states, providing it p eriod. That money could also clean up streets, provide better roadways, and overall safer environments on roads. It could even be used to provide more jobs for a state or not be used at all and go back into the taxpayer’s pocket. Any of those options are far better than spending millions of dollars to â€Å"dispose† of a violent criminal. Just allow him to live his life out in prison. When you simplify all of the statistics and information, it comes down to a substantial amount of money being pushed into capital punishment that comes out of the taxpayer’s pocket and goes into an unnecessary location. Even though more and more states are slowly abolishing the death penalty it is still staggering how much it is costing the country as a whole. That money could do so much more for those affected states and the state services they provide to the public. So if state legislatures abolish the death penalty, it could lower state taxes, help correct issues in prison structures and help redirect funds to where they are needed. References Mitchell, P. (2008, June). Death Penalty Debacle. Retrieved August 15, 2014, from http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/documents/LoyolaCalifCosts.pdf Edwards, A. (2009, February). Annual Cost to Incarcerate. In Criminal Justice and Judiciary. Retrieved August 16, 2014, from http://www.lao.ca.gov/PolicyAreas/CJ/6_cj_inmatecost Snell, T. (2014, May). Capital Punishment Statistical Tables. In Bureau of Justice Statistics. Retrieved August 17, 2014, from http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/documents/cp12st.pdf Sarat, A. (2008). Is the Death Penalty Dying?. Amsterdam: Elsevier JAI. Horton, J. E. (2014, January). Detailed Description of the Sales & Use Tax Rate. In California State Board of Equalization. Retrieved September 1, 2014, from http://www.boe.ca.gov/news/sp111500att.htm White, G. (2014, January). Michigan Equalization Information 2014. In Michigan Department of Treasury. Retrieved September 2, 2014, from http://www.michigan.gov/taxes/0,4676,7-238-43535_43537-154825–,00.html McAndrew, R. (2014, October 23) From Executioner to Advocate – Ron McAndrew Retrieved from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_Ld9ffm_pY

Analysis at the operational level the the presecution of the Allies' Essay

Analysis at the operational level the the presecution of the Allies' defence of Crete in 1941 and identify the enduring lessons - Essay Example Moreover, the leadership, going into the battle already defeated, did not bother to put together a coherent strategy for battle, but, rather, seemed to make it up as they went along. These are all reasons for the defeat, and lessons that were learned. Nevertheless, as the Allies did delay Hitler’s forces for a few weeks, which, in turn, delayed Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union, which was the turning point of the war, one could say that the battle of Crete set into motion a chain of events that led to Hitler’s destruction. This paper will examine the reasons why Crete was fought? and how the British tried to defend it? coupled with an analysis of the mistakes made and an analysis of why the battle might not have been so bad after all, as it delayed Operation Barbarossa, the invasion of the Soviet Union. Why Germany Wanted Crete and How Germany Got Involved in Greece The Battle for Crete had its roots in a demand by Benito Mussolini, Italy’s fascist dic tator, to Greece to allow an Italian occupation of Greece in October of 1940. When the premier of Greece, John Metaxas, defied this request, the Italians began the invasion of Greece (Woodhouse, 1976, p. 16), a move that would prove to be a â€Å"disaster† for Mussolini (Heckstall-Smith, A. & Baillie-Grohman, H.T., 1961, p. 15), and would make Mussolini a â€Å"laughingstock† in Greece (Hart, 1996, p. 87). This move by Mussolini was precipitated by Germany sending soldiers into the Ploesti oilfields, which enraged Mussolini enough for him to launch this invasion (Mazower, 1993, p. 15). The reason that the German action of sending soldiers to Greece so piqued Mussolini was because Mussolini was jealous of Hitler, and felt that he stood in Hitler’s shadow while Hitler rampaged Europe. While Hitler added Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Hungary, France, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and Romania to the Third Reich, Mussolini fantasi zed about adding the Mediterranean to the Italian column, while Hitler insulted him by not allowing him access to the fruits of victory. The final insult was Hitler’s occupation of Romania, a move that was done behind Mussolini’s back (Kiriakopoulos, 1995, p. xv). This insult to Mussolini was what initially caused the Italian dictator to invade Greece in 1940, as Mussolini stated that, about Hitler invading Rumania without consulting him that he â€Å"shall pay [Hitler] back with his own coin; he shall learn from the newspapers that I have occupied Greece. Thus equilibrium would be restored† (Cervi, 1971, p. 60). However, this move was unsuccessful, as Mussolini’s troops were defeated and pushed back into Albania (Mazower, 1993, p. 15). Hitler was incensed by the Italians failure (Van Creveld, 1973, p. 57), regarding it as â€Å"definitely a regrettable blunder† (Hinsley, 1951, p. 102), however, as Hitler could not allow his ally to be totally defe ated, he had to launch his own invasion of Greece, which began April 6, 1941 (Kiriakopoulos, 1995, p. xvi). Greece was also important to Germany, as it was seen as a prelude to the Russian campaign (Von der Porten, 1969, p. 109). This campaign proved to be successful (von Mellenthin, 1977, p. 228), as the Middle East,

Obesity in pediatric individual Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 4000 words

Obesity in pediatric individual - Essay Example Family history indicates that her father is obese and has Type 2 diabetes. The girl is alert and oriented, pleasant and cooperative and her vital signs indicate BP at 108/58, Heart Rate 64, RR 16, Temperature 98.4 and Body Mass Index (BMI) 32. The skin tone is dark pigmented neck, hands and underarms. The other conditions of the individual include: HEENT: Normocephalic, PERRLA, Visible fundus, without evident Micro vascular Damage. Exam otherwise unremarkable musculoskeletal – neck flexed, head down, poor posture d/t cervical dorsal hump Psychosocial – Poor self esteem, based on posture, body image. Lungs: good air entry, no adventitious breath  sound. Heart: S1 S2 present, no murmur, click, or rub. Obesity can be perceived as health hazard that primarily derives from the intake of more â€Å"calories than the body requires† and it can also occur due to the â€Å"interaction of genetic and environmental factors† (Thorleifsson et al, 2008, p.1). ... In the absence of any other obvious reasons identified in her case, the reportedly unusual weight gain of the girl seems to suggest an association with genetic or genomic causes. This becomes a specific concern since the subject’s father has a history of obesity with Type 2 diabetes. Evidence Supporting Genetic/Genomic Risk: Childhood and adolescent obesity is one of the major problems being faced by nations across the world in the modern day and this is especially so in the case of developed countries such as the United States. Though environmental changes play a key role in the prevalence of obesity across the world, evidence also suggests that â€Å"genetic component† also contributes to the risk (Bradfield et al, 2012, p.3). Recent studies based on genome-wide associations also indicate that â€Å"many genetic loci† are responsible for BMI/obesity in adults and the largest meta-analysis has brought to the fore â€Å"eighteen loci associated with BMI† ( p.4). This study further corroborates the existence of â€Å"two novel obesity loci† which are associated with â€Å"elevated adiposity in the first eighteen years of life† (p.6). Thus, it transpires that genetic and genomic elements are high risk factors for the prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents, apart from environmental causes. Since the subject’s father happens to be diabetic, the apprehension of possible risk of inherited obesity is quite high in the instant case. Wardle et al, while agreeing to the notion that the high prevalence of obesity in the recent past can be attributed to environmental factors, contends that â€Å"inherited genetic differences†